Search results for " predictive model"
showing 10 items of 17 documents
Predicting shifting sustainability trade-offs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change
2018
Defining sustainability goals is a crucial but difficult task because it often involves the quantification of multiple interrelated and sometimes conflicting components. This complexity may be exacerbated by climate change, which will increase environmental vulnerability in aquaculture and potentially compromise the ability to meet the needs of a growing human population. Here, we developed an approach to inform sustainable aquaculture by quantifying spatio-temporal shifts in critical trade-offs between environmental costs and benefits using the time to reach the commercial size as a possible proxy of economic implications of aquaculture under climate change. Our results indicate that optim…
A laparoscopic risk-adjusted model to predict major complications after primary debulking surgery in ovarian cancer: A single-institution assessment
2016
Abstract Objective To develop and validate a simple adjusted laparoscopic score to predict major postoperative complications after primary debulking surgery (PDS) in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (AEOC). Methods From January 2006 to June 2015, preoperative, intraoperative, and post-operative outcome data from patients undergoing staging laparoscopy (S-LPS) before receiving PDS (n=555) were prospectively collected in an electronic database and retrospectively analyzed. Major complications were defined as levels 3 to 5 of MSKCC classification. On the basis of a multivariate regression model, the score was developed using a random two-thirds of the population (n=370) and was validated on …
Probabilité d'apparition d'un phénomène parasitaire et choix de modèles de régression logistique
2007
Epidemiological processes are now using spatial statistics and modelling tools. The main objective of most health risks studies consists in identifying potential contamination sources and factors capable of explaining their localization. Health data often prove binary (typically presence/absence) and specific methods such as binary logistic regression have to be used. This method's output consists in a probability for the pathogen of interest. A posterior classification of each sample is then conducted using a probability threshold. The method used to maximize this threshold is called the ROC curve which consists in giving a representation of the behaviour of the model and then to choose th…
Development Of An Econometric Model Case Study: Romanian Classification System
2015
Abstract The purpose of the paper is to illustrate an econometric model used to predict the lean meat content in pig carcasses, based on the muscle thickness and back fat thickness measured by the means of an optical probe (OptiGrade PRO).The analysis goes through all steps involved in the development of the model: statement of theory, specification of the mathematical model, sampling and collection of data, estimation of the parameters of the chosen econometric model, tests of the hypothesis derived from the model and prediction equations. The data have been in a controlled experiment conducted by the Romanian Carcass Classification Commission in 2007. The purpose of the experiment was to …
Clinical and biochemical determinants of the extent of liver steatosis in type 2 diabetes mellitus
2015
Objective Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is very frequent in both type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the metabolic syndrome (MS), which share clinical and metabolic characteristics. Whether and to which extent these characteristics can predict the degree of liver steatosis are not entirely clear. Patients and methods We determined liver fat (divided into four classes) by standard sonographic images, and clinical and biochemical variables, in 60 consecutive patients with T2DM and with features of the MS. We examined both simple and multiple correlations between the degree of liver steatosis and the variables measured. Results Increased liver fat (defined as >5% of liver mass) was detec…
Innovative tools to diagnose the impact of land use practices on soil microbial communities
2018
International audience; Preservation and sustainable use of soil biological communities represent major challenges in the current agroecological context. Indeed, most of soil ecosystem services results from biological functions particularly driven by taxonomic and functional assemblages of microbiological communities (i.e. nutrient cycling, soil aggregation, depollution, etc.). Consequently, soil microbial communities are logical candidates as effective indicators of soil quality and sustainability. But, good biological indicators must be associated with references that encompass an operating range of measured values that allow performing the desired diagnosis. Even if numerous studies have…
Forecasts on the development of hydrogen refuelling infrastructures in Portugal
2021
In Portugal, the transition to new forms of mobility has begun in recent years, but there are still obstacles to overcome. Currently, hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) are the most widespread and accepted by the community and that is probably due to range anxiety, having in fact the possibility of double charging (both through the thermal engine and the electric battery). Furthermore, it must be considered that in addition to electric vehicles, another valid alternative to mobility in the near future is the hydrogen vehicles one. These appear to be even more sustainable from the point of view of air emissions, but on the other hand the costs for the production of hydrogen are still too high. Then, th…
Application of an interspecific competition model to predict the growth of Aeromonas hydrophyla on fish surfaces during refrigerated storage (Anwendu…
2007
The growth of Aeromonas hydrophila and the aerobic mesophilic plate count (APC) on gilthead seabream surfaces was evaluated during refrigerated storage (21 days). The related growth curves were compared with those obtained by a conventional third order predictive model obtaining a low agreement between observed and predicted data (Root Mean Squared Error = 1.77 for Aeromonas hydrophila and 0.64 for APC).The Lotka-Volterra interspecific competition model was used in order to calculate the degree of interaction between the two bacterial populations (beta_{Ah/APC} and beta_{APC/Ah}, respectively, the interspecific competition coefficients of APC on Aeromonas hydrophila and vice-versa). Afterwa…
A bark beetle infestation predictive model based on satellite data in the frame of decision support system TANABBO
2020
The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus L. causes significant economic losses in managed coniferous forests in Central and Northern Europe. New infestations either occur in previously undisturbed forest stands (i.e., spot initiation) or depend on proximity to previous years’ infestations (i.e., spot spreading). Early identification of newly infested trees over the forested landscape limits the effective control measures. Accurate forecasting of the spread of bark beetle infestation is crucial to plan efficient sanitation felling of infested trees and prevent further propagation of beetle-induced tree mortality. We created a predictive model of subsequent year spot initiation and spo…
Electric Mobility in Portugal: Current Situation and Forecasts for Fuel Cell Vehicles
2021
In recent years, the growing concern for air quality has led to the development of sustainable vehicles to replace conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Currently, the most widespread technology in Europe and Portugal is that of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) or plug‐in HEV (PHEV) electric cars, but hydrogen‐based transport has also shown significant growth in the commercialization of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) and in the development of new infrastructural schemes. In the current panorama of EV, particular attention should be paid to hydrogen technology, i.e., FCEVs, which is potentially a valid alternative to BEVs and can also be hybrid (FCHEV) and plug‐in hybrid…